A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
